IT IS a … Such a decisive response will imbue the proposal with a spirit of defiance and clear political will, extend the collective security umbrella against Russia’s de facto veto, and at the very least, surprise Moscow. Georgia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) relations officially began in 1994 when Georgia joined the NATO-run Partnership for Peace.Georgia has moved quickly following the Rose Revolution in 2003 to seek closer ties and eventual membership with NATO. To make this work, NATO would need to amend Article 6 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which defines where Article 5 applies, to temporarily exclude Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region. First, the Georgian government should, at least privately, acknowledge to NATO members that it is willing to join the Alliance without Abkhazia or the Tskhinvali Region under Article 5 protection until these occupied regions have been peacefully returned to Georgia. ... he could not count on a military response from NATO. Russia is not in a hurry to bring Georgia under its influence more forcefully. While Moscow was able to negotiate a ceasefire, it had to deploy peacekeepers and accede to (NATO member-state) Turkey’s influence in the South Caucasus. The Council decided to keep the wording but stripped the words “Algerian Departments of France” of their legal impact.9Antoaneta Boeva and Ivan Novotny, “Scope and Historical Developments of Article 6,” Emory International Law Review, 34 (2019): Rev. Luke Coffey and Alexis Mrachek, US Soldiers wait near their Stryker vehicle during the tactical road march for the Noble Partner 20 exercise in Georgia. NATO 20/2020 is a weekly podcast that explores 20 bold ideas to push NATO to be more visionary, more capable, and more self-evidently valuable to the security of more people. With some creativity and bold political will, however, Georgia’s accession into NATO is still feasible, despite the Russian occupation. Alexander Vershbow. NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has reiterated the alliance’s commitment to Georgia’s membership, telling IWPR that he was “certain we will find ways to deal with” obstacles including the breakaway areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. “As for the recent NATO decision reaffirming its commitment to eventually admit Georgia, what can I say to this? (Source: Defense Visual Information Database System). Luke Coffey is the director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Since using the term “South Ossetia” feeds into Russia’s propaganda, this essay will refer to this region as the “Tskhinvali Region.” (Tskhinvali is the largest city under Russian occupation.) To be sure, NATO members have legitimate concerns about Georgia joining the Alliance. Russia need not occupy these NATO members to advance its Black Sea strategies. 121, https://law.emory.edu/eilr/content/volume-34/issue-special/articles/scope-historical-developments-article-6.html Similar modifications could be made for Georgia. Russia is likely to launch a disinformation campaign to claim that amending Article 6 to temporarily exclude the occupied regions is proof that the Georgian people do not want them back. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. A few years earlier Russia’s invasion of Georgia, despite my dire warnings, also took the world by surprise. This would not be without precedent as Article 6 has been amended and modified before. with Moscow. In the aftermath of the Russian revolution, Georgia declared independence on 26 May 1918. It has already achieved its main objectives: effectively stopping Georgia’s NATO membership and establishing a military presence in the South Caucasus. This amendment could be made during Georgia’s accession-protocol process. by NATO Review talks to security experts and asks whether there were enough clues in Russia's previous adventures - especially in Estonia and Georgia - to indicate that Crimea would be next. Russia is conducting perpetual disinformation campaigns against the Georgian people and will continue to do so, regardless of whether or not Article 6 is amended. Since NATO makes all of its major decisions by consensus, the process of welcoming Georgia into the Alliance under the terms outlined here would require strong leadership, intense diplomatic negotiations, and, perhaps most importantly, patience. The debate would push Germany and France to put forward an alternative proposal, which thus far they have failed to provide. Russia has already made some moves to suspend commercial relations with Georgia, a country that has ambitions to join NATO and the European Union (like Ukraine). While it is in NATO’s best interest that any outstanding border disputes be resolved before members join the Alliance, the last sentence of the aforementioned paragraph clearly states that the resolution of such disputes would be “a factor,” and not the factor, in determining whether to invite a country to join NATO. At NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit, the allies refused to go along with a US push to offer Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP), but agreed that it would someday become a member of the Alliance. These measures will show NATO members that even though Georgia is a politically divided country (like most democracies around the world), there is political unity on the issue of NATO membership. The area in Georgia that attempted to break away in 1991, that now has been under Russian occupation since 2008, is commonly referred to as “South Ossetia.” However, “South Ossetia” is not one of the eleven subdivisions of Georgia, but instead includes parts of Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Shida Kartli, Imereti, Racha-Lechkhumi, and the Kvemo Svaneti regions. As the NATO powers historically most reluctant to offer Georgia a MAP, Germany and France will likely object to this proposal early in the process. After the Mongol invasions of the region, the Kingdom of Georgia eventually was split into several states. The consequences of the five-day war in 2008 are still felt today. MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that any future NATO decision to admit Georgia to its ranks could trigger “a terrible conflict” and questioned why the alliance would consider such a move. This should also include working with Turkey, one of the Alliance’s strongest supporters of Georgian membership.11Luke Baker, “Turkish Foreign Minister Calls for Enlarged NATO, Georgia Membership,” Reuters, January 23, 2020, https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZM1HB. and disinformation campaigns5McCain Institute, “Tracking and Refuting Disinformation in Georgia: Social Media Monitoring and Analysis Final Report,” November 2019, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/final-report_disinformationgeogia.pdf in an attempt to discredit the Georgian government and undermine state institutions. Georgians, too, must take action to speed along their nation’s membership prospects. Hugh Williamson, “Germany Blocks Ex-Soviets’ NATO Entry,”, The term “South Ossetia” is commonly used to describe the area north of Tbilisi that is under illegal Russian occupation. This policy has helped to ensure the Alliance’s central place as the prime guarantor of security in Europe and admitting Georgia would extend that guarantee further in the contested Black Sea region. Georgia’s NATO ambitions have been a source of anger for Russia - which shares a border with ex-Soviet republic Georgia and does not want to see it join what it regards as a hostile military bloc - since 2008 when NATO leaders promised Georgia it would one day join the alliance. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday criticized NATO exercises in Georgia next month as harmful and said other countries should join Russia in boycotting them. Accession protocols are essentially “amendments or additions to the Treaty, which once signed and ratified by Allies, become an integral part of the Treaty itself and permit the invited countries to become parties to the Treaty.”6NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), “NATO Enlargement,” last updated May 5, 2020, https://www.nato.int/summit2009/topics_en/05-enlargement.html However, it should be made clear that the amendment to Article 6 would only be a temporary measure until Georgia’s full and internationally recognized territory is restored by peaceful means. Equally valuable, admitting Georgia would cement NATO’s open-door policy for qualified countries as an important contribution to transatlantic security since the first round of enlargement in 1952. The Georgian-Russian war of 2008 was the result of Georgia attempting to qualify for NATO membership by invading and reincorporating Abkhazia (which is … Equally important, it will send a strong message to Moscow that it no longer has a de facto veto on NATO enlargement. One idea worth considering is inviting Georgia—including Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region—to join NATO, but only covering the areas outside of the two occupied regions under NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee. Since using the term “South Ossetia” feeds into Russia’s propaganda, this essay will refer to this region as the “Tskhinvali Region.” (Tskhinvali is the largest city under Russian occupation.). NATO 20/2020 As Russia’s relative influence in the region wanes, any hint of support from the Biden administration for Georgia’s campaign for NATO membership could provoke a violent Russian response. by In the 19th century, the Russian Empire gradually took over the Georgian lands. Under NATO rules, countries with territorial conflicts cannot join the alliance. Damon Wilson and Will O’Brien, Subscribe for events and publications on transatlantic security. Soldiers participate in a drill as part of the US-Georgian bilateral Georgia Defence Readiness Programme during a visit to Georgia by NATO’s Military Committee. When Georgia regained its independence from the Soviet Union later in 1991, it established eleven internal subdivisions (two autonomous republics and nine regions). Want to be the first to get up to speed on the meaning of big, breaking international developments? We understand that if any other country claims that they are part of its national territory, this may have severe consequences. This is a common misconception that has its roots in the 1995 Study on NATO Enlargement carried out by the Alliance. 199 JaNuaRy 29, 2018 NATO Membership for Georgia: In U.S. and European Interest Luke Coffey Abstract In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia beginning a … The Russian prime minister added that Stoltenberg's recent reiteration of NATO's intention to admit Georgia is “an absolutely irresponsible position and a threat to peace.” 1921 - After the Red Army invasion, Georgia and Abkhazia are declared Soviet Socialist republics. At NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit, the allies refused to go along with a US push to offer Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP), but agreed that it would someday become a member of the Alliance.1Hugh Williamson, “Germany Blocks Ex-Soviets’ NATO Entry,” Financial Times, April 1, 2008, https://www.ft.com/content/ab8eb6a6-ff44-11dc-b556-000077b07658 Germany and France intended for this equivocation to allay Russian objections, yet it was seized upon by Vladimir Putin as an opportunity to block Georgia’s path to the Alliance. Three NATO members border the Black Sea: Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey; and an associate member of NATO, Georgia. One of the biggest concerns shared by North American and European policy makers alike is Russia’s occupation of Georgian territory. Russia has recognized the two regions as independent states and Medvedev said Georgia’s entry into NATO therefore raised the risk of conflict with Moscow. If the EU takes collective policy action on Georgia’s resilience against Russian aggression, NATO would also be freed up to address Russia’s military actions in the Black Sea. Antoaneta Boeva and Ivan Novotny, “Scope and Historical Developments of Article 6,”. Turkey is very important to this issue. Reexamining NATO’s founding charter can be an exercise in creating an Alliance fit for a new geopolitical era. Admitting Georgia into NATO would be a needless provocation to Russia. To this day, Russian aggression continues with “creeping annexations”3McCain Institute, “McCain Institute Unveils Tracker of Russian ‘Borderization’ in Georgia,” October 16, 2019, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/news/mccain-institute-unveils-tracker-of-russian-borderization-in-georgia/; McCain Institute, Heritage Foundation, and Economic Policy Research Center in Georgia, “Russian Borderization in Georgia,” October 2019, https://uploads.knightlab.com/storymapjs/183ab9d69fc702c33a79bfcd27b7b4d8/russian-borderization-in-georgia/index.html of even more Georgian territory. It aspires to join the Alliance. This is merely a reflection of the different realities in the two countries. Tbilisi must first find the political will to support the idea of amending Article 6. Georgia’s geostrategic location in the South Caucasus, its professional and capable military (and its political will to use it), and its commitment to liberty and democracy would make it a powerful addition to the stability of the transatlantic community. However, this challenge is not insurmountable. Ryan Browne, “US and UK Accuse Russia of Major Cyber Attack on Georgia,” CNN, February 20, 2020. Russian worries about Western encirclement are premature. Editing by Richard Balmforth and Alison Williams. both of which Moscow recognized as sovereign states after the war in flagrant violation of international law and the principles of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). McCain Institute, “Tracking and Refuting Disinformation in Georgia: Social Media Monitoring and Analysis Final Report,” November 2019. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Jun 15th 2006. moscow AP. Over time, a broad range of practical cooperation has developed between NATO and Georgia, which supports Georgia’s reform efforts and its goal of Euro-Atlantic integration. by This is not meant to be a criticism of Ukraine; NATO should aspire to bring Ukraine into the Alliance someday. By … At best, it would welcome a new member into the transatlantic community that is fiercely committed to enduring deterrence. There are also concerns about whether Georgia’s democracy and political stability have developed enough to justify membership. Don’t say America didn’t respond. NATO leaders discussed ties with Georgia at their summit in Brussels in July, a move Medvedev, who was president when Russian and Georgian forces clashed in 2008, condemned. During a visit to Georgia, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has again said that the South Caucasus country will eventually join the Western … NATO issues statement with regard to Russia, focusing on Georgia and Ukraine 15 April, 2021 / 17:26 Georgian, Ukrainian presidents hold phone talk 15 April, 2021 / 16:12 Chairman of parliament thanks Georgian soldiers serving in global hotspot for military activity 15 April, 2021 / 12:20 This is to be expected, but if nothing else, there will finally be a meaningful debate about a responsible and realistic way to welcome Georgia into the Alliance. In the end, the decision of when and how to admit Georgia to NATO will have a political dimension as well as a military one. Further, countering Russian disinformation will be crucial for the success of this proposal. A Russian Foreign Ministry official said on Thursday the entry of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would be a "huge strategic mistake" after alliance … Defense Visual Information Database System, https://www.ft.com/content/ab8eb6a6-ff44-11dc-b556-000077b07658, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/news/mccain-institute-unveils-tracker-of-russian-borderization-in-georgia/, https://uploads.knightlab.com/storymapjs/183ab9d69fc702c33a79bfcd27b7b4d8/russian-borderization-in-georgia/index.html, https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/politics/russia-georgia-hacking/index.html, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/final-report_disinformationgeogia.pdf, https://www.nato.int/summit2009/topics_en/05-enlargement.html, https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=22880, https://law.emory.edu/eilr/content/volume-34/issue-special/articles/scope-historical-developments-article-6.html, https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-1-349-20503-5_6.pdf, https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZM1HB, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_24733.htm, Policy on donor acceptance and disclosure. It's also been more than 10 years since NATO agreed Georgia … Until signals are sent to allied capitals that the Georgian government is on board, do not expect movement on this issue from the Alliance. This is merely a reflection of the different realities in the two countries. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), “NATO Enlargement,” last updated May 5, 2020. Alexis Mrachek is a research associate for Russia and Eurasia at the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation. I don’t understand what they are doing this for,” Medvedev told Russia’s Kommersant newspaper in an interview. Georgia, Ukraine and NATO Surrounding Russia. NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine has been off the table since 2008, following the 20th NATO Summit in Bucharest and Russia’s invasion of Georgia. This name is derived from the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast created in 1922 by the Soviet Union. Russia founded it easy to invade Georgia because Georgia was neither a NATO member nor a U.S. military treaty ally. Prominent Georgian politicians are keen for their country to join the Western military alliance, but have seen their chances of joining hampered by Russian territorial incursions into the two breakaway territories - South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Washington can leverage its “special relationship” with the UK and focus on outreach to NATO’s Central and Eastern European member states, which will be generally supportive. Georgia is one of the Alliance’s closest partners. In 1991, the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast declared independence from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic, which resulted in the 1991–92 South Ossetia War. © 2020 Atlantic Council 1 SPECIAL REPORT | NO. NATO needs to increase the costs for Russian NATO enlargement and Russia: myths and realities 03 Jul. Now, in order to prevent Georgia from attaining NATO membership, Russia plays a long game by using non-kinetic tools. We have you covered! McCain Institute, “McCain Institute Unveils Tracker of Russian ‘Borderization’ in Georgia,” October 16, 2019. Luke Baker, “Turkish Foreign Minister Calls for Enlarged NATO, Georgia Membership,” Reuters, January 23, 2020. Furthermore, one EU capability that would help protect Georgia from Russian disinformation is a commitment to provide technical support on intelligence-gathering. NATO-Russia Relations after the Georgian Conflict In August 2008 Russia fought and won a five-day war against Georgia.1 This short conflict can be considered a … Opinion: Russia invaded Georgia 10 years ago. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), “Study on NATO Enlargement,” last updated November 5, 2008. The area in Georgia that attempted to break away in 1991, that now has been under Russian occupation since 2008, is commonly referred to as “South Ossetia.” However, “South Ossetia” is not one of the eleven subdivisions of Georgia, but instead includes parts of Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Shida Kartli, Imereti, Racha-Lechkhumi, and the Kvemo Svaneti regions. Despite sounding quixotic, the proposal has merits. In 1951, just two years after NATO’s formation, it was modified prior to Greece and Turkey joining the Alliance. Amending Article 6 to state that Russian-occupied regions would be temporarily excluded from the Article 5 security protection is a realistic, responsible, and reasonable way to admit Georgia into NATO while accounting for concerns on both sides of the Atlantic. Key to selling NATO members on the proposal will be dispelling the myth that Georgia cannot join the Alliance until the issue of its disputed territory is peaceably resolved. End the Russian veto on Georgian accession - Atlantic Council by In 2010, Georgia unilaterally pledged not to use force to restore its control over the two regions under Russian occupation.7Civil Georgia, “Georgia Makes ‘Unilateral Pledge’ of Non-Use of Force,” November 23, 2010, https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=22880 If Georgia will not use its own armed forces to liberate these regions, there is no need for an Article 5 security guarantee that covers Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region.8A similar proposal would not apply to Ukraine because Kyiv does not have a non-use of force pledge regarding Russian-occupied Crimea and the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.
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